A regional approach to financial crisis prevention: lessons by Jan Joost Teunissen (editor)

By Jan Joost Teunissen (editor)

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Additional info for A regional approach to financial crisis prevention: lessons from Europe and initiatives in Asia, Latin America and Africa

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For all equations the calculated "t" ratios are reported in parentheses below the estimated coefficient. 65. 81. 86. 92. 3. 03 + 1. 75w\ (i) + 1. 86. 74. 32) In considering these results we should keep two points in mind. First, in comparing the two equations for each of the periods, we should recall that the equation designated "a" refers to the relationship between the annual compounded rates of growth, while "b" pertains to the total growth rates over the period. Had we divided the variables used in estimating equation "b" by the number of years in each period (11,5, and 16), the coefficients would have stayed the same, for the scaling would have been applied to both dependent and explanatory variables, but the intercept of each equation would have been scaled down (divided by the number of years).

These results may be due to the proximity of 1947 to the end of the war; during the recovery period both consumption and autonomous expenditures (government expenditures in particular) may have increased faster than income, leaving little room for the expansion of investment. This, however, is offered as a conjecture to explain the change in the parameters between the two years. If the model were to be judged by its fit to the data, the equations reported above would clearly give strong support to the model, particularly in 1958, where the fits to the data of both equations are remarkable.

Richardson has suggested that "[i]f aggregate growth theories are applicable to regional analysis, the Harrod-Domar group of models is a well-qualified candidate for two reasons" (Richardson, 1969, p. 323). , p. 323). 1) where we suppress the distinction between the private sector and the government sector and allocate any government expenditures to either consumption or investment. Defining domestic savings as the difference between income and consumption expenditures, we can assume the equilibrium condition requiring the equality of savings to investment plus capital outflows as s = I + (X - M).

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